Re-engineering of the global world order
My take on the new normal ahead
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server. At least not anymore.
Covid-19 has taken over the world, ravaging the lives of all 7.5 billion members of our
species. It has made the mighty kneel and brought the world to a screeching halt. Nothing
will ever be the same.
Our minds are racing back and forth, longing for a return to the “normality” of our
previous lives, refusing to acknowledge the rupture in our lives. But in the midst of this
anguish and hopelessness, it is this rupture that gives us an opportunity to reimagine our
world.
Nothing can be worse than returning to the “normal” that existed before our world was
transformed forever.
In the words of the author Neil Gaiman, “Fairy tales are more than true, not because they
tell us dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten.”
Covid-19 is like a dragon, devastating the world as we know it. But, it can and eventually
will be beaten. And though reflection, we can create a better world, a “new normal” for
ourselves.
This pandemic is forcing us to break from our past. We have two choices. The first is to
walk through the gateway, dragging with us the carcasses of narrow-mindedness,
intolerance and prejudices along with our outdated ideas, tainted skies and contaminated
rivers. And the second is to walk through lightly, with little baggage and fresh thoughts,
ready to recreate our world and lives.
The second option, right? But to truly let go of the past, the first step really is to accept.
Accept that everything is going to, in fact, has already changed, for better or for worse.
Because it is only then that you can truly let go of all your inhibitions, change your mindset
and open your eyes and mind to the “new normal”.
And then we can look at the emerging world order, adapt to it and learn to survive and
thrive again. After all, castaways endure on desert islands because adaptation is our
strongest human superpower and survival is our strongest instinct.
But what is the “new world order”? To begin with, the US is no longer predominant. In
fact, it took an unprecedented inward turn, retreating from the very institutions, economic
principles and military outreach that helped it become a superpower and sustain that
power.
Instead, the new normal will bear witness to another rising force eager to stamp its
authority and claim its “rightful” place as the leader of the world: China.
The pandemic has led to China signalling that it would no longer be constrained by
international norms, past agreements and the romantic idea of a “peaceful rise.” China
will assert its power. The paradox here is that it was in China that coronavirus originated
yet China may end up emerging as the most powerful entity after the pandemic.
China has already eroded Hong King’s autonomous status through a repressive national
security legislation, launched cyber offensives against Australia, asserted its claims in the
South China Sea, stepped up its offensive against Japan and, of course, attempted to
change the facts on the border with India.
The world increasingly faces a choice. Give into these Chinese attempts to overturn the
international order, accept Beijing’s actions, and subscribe to all that comes with it — its
authoritarian structure, its disdain for individual freedom, its attempts to dominate the
whole world, and its semi-imperial enterprise of the Belt and Road Initiative. Or strive to
contain China’s uncontrolled use of power. The most significant, message of the
pandemic is, therefore, simple — accept China’s supremacy or get ready for a long battle
ahead.
Many countries have chosen or will choose the second option. Consequently, two major
trends emerge, both crucial aspects of the “new normal”: the return of nationalism and
the retreat of globalisation.
At a time when Covid-19 reflects cross-border, transnational threat to humanity: one case
in a city leading to over ten million infections and half-million deaths (and counting)
worldwide, nationalism has returned with a vengeance. Instead of the pandemic bringing
home the message of inter-connectedness and that all countries need to swim together,
or we will all sink, the pandemic has actually brought home a different message.
You are on your own.
The national lockdowns; the prolonged interruptions to international travel; the desperate
search in each country for testing kits, hospital beds, personal protective equipment and
related health infrastructure tools; campaigns such as “atmanirbhar” and “vocal for
local”, have all made borders the most salient feature of international politics again.
Those who thought that borders would become irrelevant can bid adieu to their dreams.
From Trump’s decision to tighten immigration rules to India’s decision to launch an
economic campaign for self-reliance, nation-states have returned as the most powerful
units in the world order.
Retreat of globalisation is indeed a paradox. Global economic integration is possibly the
best way to recover from a deep, unprecedented global recession. But the brewing
resentment in the West about the perceived loss of opportunities due to these
interlinkages had already led to the rise of economic nationalists.
Trade wars had broken out before the pandemic but coronavirus brought home the
importance of securing one’s own supply chains, generating employment through
manufacturing at home and reducing dependence on China.
Nations are developing a new attitude. Foreign investment is okay — as long as it is
coming to them only. Trade is okay — as long as it is skewed in their own favour.
Technological cooperation is fine — but they will not cede control of critical
infrastructure. Migration is fine — but only in a very restrictive manner, and only if those
who come are sorely needed.
In short, the new normal will view a change in the global order where one thing should
be crystal clear: you have to build your economy yourself.
And to build economies, you have to create industries yourself and remove those that can
potentially cause harm. This process has already begun in India, with Chinese apps such
as TikTok, WeChat and CamScanner being blocked and imports from China being
questioned. New industries will have to be set up in India to replace the goods that are
now restricted or even no longer available.
The positive side of having new industries? More employment! The downside? Less
efficient production and higher costs. Because when you know you have no competition,
why put in any extra effort?
The world needs to build pandemic-ready healthcare systems and industries that can
adapt rapidly and continue to operate under stress. Manufacturers must embrace the
hyper-flexible Industry 4.0 approach so they can retool rapidly to deliver different
products as determined by demand and supply conditions.
The new normal will not only have an abundance of new industries but also a glut of
dwindling ones. Financially stressed companies such as airlines will shut down. Travel
agents will lose their jobs as people will only board airplanes for urgent business and not
for pleasure. Restaurants and cafes will be shut as for the longest time, due to Covid-19,
people would not feel safe enough to eat outside food, prepared by strangers. Further,
with restrictions imposed due to the need of physical distancing, how many restaurants
can be profitable anyway?
Stripped of the comfortable illusion of being in control, consumers will move to reassert
control over their lives in ways big and small. Pantries will be kept stocked. Savings rates
will increase. In other words, expenditures will reduce and savings increase so the
people can stay prepared for any emergency or unfavourable scenario that may befall
them. This will make it even more difficult for economies to rise up from the recession.
Consumers will ask more questions about where products come from, how safe food is to
eat, and what it took to produce and ship goods to their homes. Digitization efforts will
rapidly accelerate, as the increased use of tele-health, online education, and home
grocery shopping have ably illustrated.
Vulnerability is the birthplace of innovation and creativity. Constraint is a powerful source
of inspiration used by engineers, designers, and artists alike. It all begins by asking the
“how” questions. How can we design this poster with just four colours, build a phone with
only one button, or keep our restaurant alive when we can’t open our premises?
This has been tested in the age of Covid-19. Auto manufacturers have quickly retooled to
make hospital ventilators. Clothing companies are making facemasks and protective
gowns for healthcare providers. Scientists are working to create a drone-based system
to help identify or predict Covid-19 hotspots.
Covid-19 is “the great accelerator.” Before it turned the world upside down, we were
already on track for incredible transformation—more in the next decade than the last 40-
50 years. The pressure cooker effect of pandemic will accelerate the pace of changes that
would have happened anyway, given time: Digitization, automation, supply chain
innovation, the death of more retailers, more people working from home, and of course
accelerated divorces.
We must not underestimate the scale of this shift, and businesses must build an innovation
strategy that positions them to thrive in this new normal. Every business is going to feel
like a start up again.
Many people refused to ride early steam trains, believing that human beings would melt
if they travelled faster than 30 miles per hour! Change is both scary and exhilarating. The
more literate we can become about these technologies, the less we fear them. We begin
to understand their power for the common good.
Six technologies: artificial intelligence, block chain, sensors, autonomous machines,
augmented reality, and 5G and satellite constellation networks will combine to create
incredible new products and services, revolutionize business operations, elevate human
work, and serve customers in new ways.
We are a resilient, adaptable, and innovative species. Our world will adapt and improve
and so must we. Some couples are falling in love in lockdown without seeing each other
in person. Some made the bold move to move in together at the start of the pandemic.
And others are forming “support bubbles” with newfound loves.
Living through this moment in history is already changing our relationship to time. While
some couples are taking it slow physically, but hurtling full steam ahead emotionally,
others are treating their Tinder matches like pen pals and taking things at a pace that can
be described as glacial. Others are going full steam ahead on both those counts.
According to a report from dating site eharmony, over a third of people newly living with
a partner feel the past two months are the equivalent of two years of commitment. More
than 59 percent of new couples feel more committed to their partner in the wake of the
pandemic, creating a wave of “turbo relationships,” and 36 percent say they’ve hit
common relationship milestones, like moving in together, much quicker. But that doesn’t
mean that people will have more children. Quite the opposite really! People will choose
to have less children. With the economy in a tailspin, pay cuts, layoffs and retrenchments
hound young parents, casting a shadow on the family’s aspirations for their kids and
reducing the allure of having children in the first place.
A recent piece of graffiti in Hong Kong proclaims: “We can’t return to normal, because
the normal we had was precisely the problem.” How true is that!
Covid-19 has been called “the great pause,” a time for reflection and introspection. And
we must use this time well.
As a guy named Einstein reminded us, we can’t solve our problems with the same kind of
thinking we used when we created them.
With clear skies over New Delhi for the first time since I was born, existential threats felt
for the first time in generations and enforced quiet time at home, people everywhere are
reassessing their values and what’s truly important to them. And learning to adapt in
multi-fold ways to the challenges and exciting opportunities ahead.
Let’s face it, there is no going back to December 2019.
